By Lorena Ruibal 由劳伦娜瑞保撰写 Published: 22 January 2016 出版:2016/1/22
However, the global volume of mandarins destined for processing is set to shrink by 6.1% instead, according to the latest USDA citrus report.
Global mandarin production for 2015/16 is forecast at a record 28.9
million tonnes, up over 200,000 tones from last year driven by an
increase in China’s output, which would offset an expected drop by 16%
to 2.91 mln tonnes in the EU.
The USDA forecasts China’s mandarin production to surge 600,000 tonnes to a record 20.0 mln tonnes on the back of area expansion in the producing provinces of Guangxi, Hunan, and Hubei.
“China’s consumption and exports continue to rise with increased supplies,” the report goes on.
The volume of mandarins going into processing would also rise to 660,000 tonnes, up by 5% year-on-year.
China represents over two-thirds of global production and consumption of mandarins and one-third of global exports.
Conversely, production in the EU is forecast down by 550,000 tonnes to 2.9 mln tonnes due to unfavourable weather. The volume of mandarins destined for the industry would dip by 18% to 324,000 tonnes.
EU exports are projected to be flat on lower available supplies, but consumption would be down 13%, the report says.
US production is forecast to grow 6% to a record 839,000 tonnes, driven primarily by California, whose projected output increase is expected to offset the decline in Florida’s mandarin production.
Some 135,000 tonnes of mandarins are expected to be processed, 4,000 tonnes more than in the previous marketing year. Consumption in the country is up by 5% while imports are flat, the report adds. 该报告补充说,约135,000吨的桔子预计将被用来加工,比上个营销年多了4,000吨。美国的消费上升了5%,而进口则是平平。
Meanwhile, Japan’s production is forecast up 4% to 1.1 mln tonnes with trees exhibiting an on-year fruit set although limited by extremely hot weather. Consumption is expected at over 1.0 mln tonnes, also up 与此同时,日本产量预计上涨4%至110万吨,虽然受到极热天限制桔树展示座果正常。预计消费超过100万吨,也有增长。
The report noted that fresh consumption continues to expand with greater supplies. Yet total trade is down as exports from Turkey plunged by 25%, despite export growth from China, Morocco, and Israel. 该报告指出, 随着更大的供应新的消费会继续扩大。然而,由于土耳其的出口下降了25%贸易总额下降了,尽管中国,摩洛哥,和以色列出口有所增长。
Turkey’s production is forecast at a record 1.0 mln tonnes, up 80,000 tonnes from the previous year driven by an increase in acreage. Still, Russia’s ban on imports of some Turkish food items is projected to drag mandarin exports down by 25% to 460,000 tonnes. Consumption is up on trade demand and greater supplies.
Morocco is set to benefit from Russia’s ban on Turkish mandarins, as Russia may swift to this origin. Production in Morocco is forecast up by 50,000 tonnes to 1.1 mln on increased plantation areas.
As a result, the USDA estimates an increase in exports due to the increase in available supplies and higher demand from Russia for fruit from non-Turkish origins.
USDA's forecast of a bumper mandarin crop in China for the marketing year 2015/16 contradicts FOODNEWSi nformation gathered from manufacturers and traders in the country.
As FOODNEWS already reported, Chinese packers finished the canning season earlier than normal (right after Christmas) due to pressure from sky-high raw material prices prompted by a short crop coupled with few orders from the US, China’s largest market for canned mandarins.
These developments are said to have discouraged Chinese canners to produce large volumes, afraid of losing money by keeping large expensive inventories.
Also, FOODNEWS is unable to confirm that there has been an "area expansion in the producing provinces of Guangxi, Hunan, and Hubei", as the USDA report says.
Processing mandarins forecast MY2015/16（吨）
跨年产季 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
China中国 480,00 600,000 660,000 600,000 630,000 660,000
EU欧盟 495,000 347,000 347,000 303,000 398,000 324,000
Argentina阿根廷 145,000 40,000 63,000 82,000 147,000 150,000
US美国 160,000 153,000 130,000 131,000 131,000 135,000
South Korea南韩 81,000 103,000 56,000 93,000 159,000 95,000
Japan日本 85,000 15,000 81,000 90,000 90,000 90,000
Israel 23,000 38,000 30,000 24,000 45,000 50,000
Other其他 26,000 15,000 17,000 20,000 21,000 21,000